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Water Levels, Depths and Rainfall
For Lake Los Carneros to remain relatively healthy (little or no eutrophication) it seems to need about 16 inches of rain for two years in a row. For the Goleta Fire Station rainfall monitor 18.39 inches per year is the current (2024) average.
May 2010 - ~3 ft. below spill level
According to the monitor from rain year 1942 through 1955 this was not the case. But in 1956 the trend started to change. Except for a few years in the late 50s/early 60s and early 70s the rainfall totals were close to average for at least two years in a row. In fact, for a 10 year period from 1973 through 1983 there was never more than a year in a row of below average rain. This coincides with the stories I hear of the lake being "healthy" and full most of the time during the 70s.
Oct 2013 - ~9 ft. below spill level
The 80's we entered another period where we did not get two years in a row of enough rain and the lake suffered. In addition, after a historical rainfall year of nearly 50 inches in 1982-1983, the water level was lowered artificially.
Aug 2014 - ~11 ft. below spill level
This "dry" pattern ended in 1991 with what is known as the "March Miracle" rains and in 1993 the lake spilled for the first time since 1983. This "wet" period continued through 2011. During this period there were only five years of less than 17 inches of rain and there was never more than one year in a row of below average rain. The lake never dropped below ~9 ft below spill level and was relatively healthy similar to the 70s. Unfortunately this healthy streak ended in 2012.
Mar 1993: Lake spills for the first time since 1983
Mar 2024: Lake spills for 2 years in a row for the first time since 2001
Jun 1997: Lake came within ~1 ft of spilling for 3 years in a row and then spilled again in 1998.
Jan 2023: Lake spills for the first time since 2011
When I first visited Lake Los Carneros in the Fall 1983 the water level of the lake was ~12 ft. below spill level. A nearly 50 inch rain rain year in 1982-1983 lead me to find out that these low levels were the result of the lake being artificially lowered.
Nov 2015 - ~14 ft. below spill level
This period of low rain caused the water level of the lake to drop to over 15 ft. below spill level in early 1991. The "March Miracle" rain of 1991 produced over 12" of rain in one month brought the lake back up a couple of feet from spilling. Although close to spilling in 1992 the lake did not actually spill (for the first time since 1983) until 1993. The "March Miracle" rain of 1991 was the beginning of another period of 17 inches of rain for two (or more) years in a row which lasted until 2011. During this period the lake spilled numerous times and flourished from the repeated "water changes" nature was providing.
Low Water Level Markers:
~8 ft. below spill level: The bottom of the ladder furthest to the East exposed
~10 ft. below spill level: The ledge just barely exposed
~12 ft. below spill level: The drain exposed and pipe out beyond the drain visible
~14 ft. below spill level: The pipe out beyond the drain exposed
Unfortunately 2012 was the start of another period of low rainfall. Causing the water level of the lake to pass 10 ft. below spill level for the first time in over 20 years. In October of 2014 the water level dropped to over 11 ft. below spill level and exposed the drain of the dam for the first time since the "March Miracle" rains in 1991.
Apr 1993: Lake spills for the first time in over a decade
Nov 2014: Spillway completely dry
Jan 2005: Lake spilled causing the water to nearly reach the walking trail through Spooky Cove
Oct 2015: Nearly a straight line from Frog Beach to Stow Point as the water level reaches ~13.5 ft. below spill level
A little over 7 inches of rain in November and December of 2014 provided an additional 3 ft. of fresh water pushing it back up to just a little over 8 ft. below spill level. This combined with another 4.5 inches of rain in 2015 was not enough to keep the water from dropping to a historic ~13 ft. below spill level by the Fall of 2015.
Apr 2024: The "Hidden Hole" when the lake has been spilling for several weeks.
Feb 2015: The "Hidden Hole" at ~8.8 ft. below spill level.
September 2014: Tree stumps where the old road used to be. Visible as water level reaches ~11.5 ft. below spill level.
August 2024: Old road tree stumps under ~10+ ft. of water. (taken from
same location as previous photo)
The water level dropped to over 14 ft. below spill level by December of 2016. Above average rain in February and March of 2017 added nearly 13 feet of water into the lake. Bringing the water level to within a little over a foot from spilling but unfortunately 2018 was another year of below average rainfall. Above average rain in 2019 helped but was was followed by another three years of below average rain.
On March 22, 2023 Lake Los Carneros spilled for the first time since 2011. Another 20+ inches of rain in 2024 caused it to spill again in 2024.
2024, 2001 and 1996 are the only times since 1982 that the lake has spilled for two years in a row. And although there were several times it was close, since 1982 the lake has never spilled for three or more years in a row. However, rainfall indicates that the lake may have spilled for a third year in a row in 1975 and 1980.
Tap here to download the historical rainfall totals for the Goleta Fire Station rainfall monitor.
Oct 2014: Water level ~12 ft. below spill level
Dec 2019: Water level ~6 ft. below spill level
Jul 2014: Tree Stumps where the old road used to be just barely visible as water level reaches ~10 ft. below spill level
Feb 2015: Measuring the water level between storms
Lake Depths
1999 Depth:
~20 ft. (measured using an electronic depth
finder)
2011 Depth:
~19 ft. (measured using a marked rope with
a weight on the end)
Rainfall & Water Levels
Green = Less
than 2 feet below spill level
Red = 10+ feet
below spill level
| Year | Month |
Feet below spill level (approx.) |
| 2024 | December 2 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | October 31 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | October 6 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | September 11 | 3.6 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2024 - August 2025 | 0.72" |
| 2023 | July | 5.0* |
| 2023 | April | 3.0* |
| 2023 | January | 0.0 |
| 2022 | October | 5.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2023 - August 2024 | 25.43" |
| 2023 | July | 5.0* |
| 2023 | April | 3.0* |
| 2023 | January | 0.0 |
| 2022 | October | 5.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2022 - August 2023 | 32.18" |
| 2022 | July | 10.0 |
| 2022 | March | 9.0 |
| 2022 | January | 8.0 |
| 2021 | October | 9.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2021 - August 2022 | 11.91" |
| 2021 | July | 9.0 |
| 2021 | April | 6.0 |
| 2021 | January | 8.0 |
| 2020 | October | 7.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2020 - August 2021 | 9.07" |
| 2020 | July | 6.5 |
| 2020 | April 10 | 5.4 |
| 2020 | February | 6.4 |
| 2020 | January | 6.2 |
| 2019 | December | 6.0 |
| 2019 | November | 7.8 |
| 2019 | October | 7.3 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2019 - August 2020 | 14.09" |
| 2019 | July | 5.0 |
| 2019 | April | 2.5 |
| 2019 | March | 2.3 |
| 2019 | January | 7.6 |
| 2018 | November | 11.6 |
| 2018 | October | 10.9 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2018 - August 2019 | 24.78" |
| 2018 | July | 9.1 |
| 2018 | April | 6.9 |
| 2018 | March | 6.3 |
| 2018 | January | 8.5 |
| 2017 | October | 7.2 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2017 - August 2018 | 9.15" |
| 2017 | July | 5.4 |
| 2017 | April | 3.3 |
| 2017 | February | 1.8 |
| 2017 | January | 11.4 |
| 2016 | December | 15.0 |
| 2016 | October | 14.6 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2016 - August 2017 | 25.26" |
| 2016 | July | 12.9 |
| 2016 | April | 10.6 |
| 2016 | March | 10.2 |
| 2016 | January | 14.2 |
| 2015 | October | 13.3 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2015 - August 2016 | 11.13" |
| 2015 | July | 11.5 |
| 2015 | April | 9.7 |
| 2015 | March | 8.9 |
| 2015 | January | 9.0 |
| 2014 | October | 12.1 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2014 - August 2015 | 11.58" |
| 2014 | July | 10.0 |
| 2014 | April | 8.0 |
| 2014 | March | 7.5 |
| 2014 | February | 9.8 |
| 2014 | January | 9.7 |
| 2013 | October | 9.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2013 - August 2014 | 6.88" |
| 2013 | July | 7.3 |
| 2013 | April | 5.4 |
| 2013 | February | 4.5 |
| 2013 | January | 5.5 |
| 2012 | November | 6.7 |
| 2012 | October | 6.5 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2012 - August 2013 | 11.03" |
| 2012 | July | 4.5 |
| 2012 | April | 3.0 |
| 2012 | January | 3.0 |
| 2011 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2011 - August 2012 | 13.60" |
| 2011 | July | 2.0 |
| 2011 | April | 0.3 |
| 2011 | January | 0.0 |
| 2010 | October | 5.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2010 - August 2011 | 31.27" |
| 2010 | July | 3.0 |
| 2010 | May | 1.6 |
| 2010 | April | 2.3 |
| 2010 | January | 5.5 |
| 2009 | October | 8.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2009 - August 2010 | 21.64" |
| 2009 | July | 6.5 |
| 2009 | April | 4.5 |
| 2009 | March | 3.5 |
| 2009 | January | 4.8 |
| 2008 | December | 6.0 |
| 2008 | October | 5.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2008 - August 2009 | 11.57" |
| 2008 | July | 3.0 |
| 2008 | April | 1.5 |
| 2008 | January | 6.0 |
| 2007 | October | 8.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2007 - August 2008 | 17.37" |
| 2007 | July | 6.0 |
| 2007 | April | 4.0 |
| 2007 | January | 4.5 |
| 2006 | October | 7.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2006 - August 2007 | 7.40" |
| 2006 | July | 5.0 |
| 2006 | April | 3.0 |
| 2006 | January | 5.0 |
| 2005 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2005 - August 2006 | 23.92" |
| 2005 | July | 2.0 |
| 2005 | April | 0.0 |
| 2005 | January | 0.0 |
| 2004 | October | 5.5 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2004 - August 2005 | 38.22" |
| 2004 | July | 3.5 |
| 2004 | April | 1.5 |
| 2004 | January | 2.0 |
| 2003 | October | 3.5 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2003 - August 2004 | 10.98" |
| 2003 | July | 1.5 |
| 2003 | April | 0.0 |
| 2003 | January | 2.5 |
| 2002 | October | 7.5 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2002 - August 2003 | 23.78" |
| 2002 | July | 5.5 |
| 2002 | April | 3.5 |
| 2002 | January | 2.0 |
| 2001 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2001 - August 2002 | 9.05" |
| 2001 | July | 1.9 |
| 2001 | April | 0.0 |
| 2001 | January | 4.0 |
| 2000 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 2000 - August 2001 | 24.39" |
| 2000 | July | 1.8 |
| 2000 | April | 0.0 |
| 2000 | January | 7.0 |
| 1999 | October | 7.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1999 - August 2000 | 22.85" |
| 1999 | July | 5.0 |
| 1999 | April | 3.0 |
| 1999 | January | 4.0 |
| 1998 | October | 3.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1998 - August 1999 | 11.85" |
| 1998 | July | 1.5 |
| 1998 | April | 0.0 |
| 1998 | February | 0.0 |
| 1998 | January | 1.0 |
| 1997 | October | 7.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1997 - August 1998 | 47.03" |
| 1997 | July | 5.0 |
| 1997 | April | 3.0 |
| 1997 | January | 1.0 |
| 1996 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1996 - August 1997 | 18.07" |
| 1996 | July | 2.0 |
| 1996 | April | 0.0 |
| 1996 | February | 0.0 |
| 1996 | January | 1.9 |
| 1995 | October | 3.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1995 - August 1996 | 17.35" |
| 1995 | July | 1.5 |
| 1995 | April | 0.0 |
| 1995 | January | 0.0 |
| 1994 | October | 6.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1994 - August 1995 | 38.34" |
| 1994 | July | 4.0 |
| 1994 | April | 2.0 |
| 1994 | January | 4.0 |
| 1993 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1993 - August 1994 | 13.87" |
| 1993 | July | 1.8 |
| 1993 | April | 0.0 |
| 1993 | January | 2.1 |
| 1992 | October | 7.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1992 - August 1993 | 28.50" |
| 1992 | July | 5.0 |
| 1992 | April | 3.0 |
| 1992 | January | 4.0 |
| 1991 | October | 7.5 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1991 - August 1992 | 19.74" |
| 1991 | July | 6.5 |
| 1991 | April | 4.5 |
| 1991 | February | 15.6 |
| 1991 | January | 15.5 |
| 1990 | October | 15.5 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1990 - August 1991 | 18.22" |
| 1990 | July | 14.8 |
| 1990 | April | 13.5 |
| 1990 | January | 12.9 |
| 1989 | December | 13.0 |
| 1989 | October | 12.9 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1989 - August 1990 | 7.04" |
| 1989 | July | 11.5 |
| 1989 | April | 9.0 |
| 1989 | January | 6.0 |
| 1988 | October | 7.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1988 - August 1989 | 9.11" |
| 1988 | July | 4.0 |
| 1988 | April | 3.0 |
| 1988 | January | 2.0 |
| 1987 | October | 6.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1987 - August 1988 | 14.42" |
| 1987 | July | 4.0 |
| 1987 | April | 3.0 |
| 1987 | January | 5.0 |
| 1986 | October | 4.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1986 - August 1987 | 11.94" |
| 1986 | August | 5.5 |
| 1986 | July | 4.5 |
| 1986 | April | 2.0 |
| 1986 | January | 10.0 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1985 - August 1986 | 22.26" |
| 1985 | October | 14.0 |
| 1985 | July | 12.0 |
| 1985 | April | 10.4 |
| 1985 | January | 9.5 |
| 1984 | October | 14.8 |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1984 - August 1985 | 14.71" |
| 1984 | July | 13.8 |
| 1984 | April | 12.9 |
| 1984 | January | 10.3 |
| 1983 | November | 13.0 |
| 1983 | October | 12.5* |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1983 - August 1984 | 15.41" |
| Water Year Rainfall Total: | September 1982 - August 1983 | 47.93" |
*Known occurrences of lake being artificially lowered. 2023 was slightly (maybe a foot?). 1982 was all the way to the drain (12 ft. down) just after a historic nearly 50 inch rain year where the lake would have been spilling and then some.
[Home/History]
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